Stockscom Report for Monday July 4 2005

Publisher: Colin Alexander        Editor: Ken Wilson (450-691-4617)

Subscriptions and Administration: Pierre Fichaud (toll-free: 866-487-9711)

 

  • Looking for support on the indexes

 

 

Technically Speaking

 

There was little change to the broad direction of the markets this week with the major trend remaining up. More intermediate moves have fluctuated between upward and downward trends often depending on the stochastics at the given moment. Nevertheless markets are situated at a junction point for now assuming that the SP offers the proper, valid description of stocks in general.

 

Despite the on-going presence of a potential head and shoulders formation stretching back to the fall of 2004, this remains inconclusive as long as SP is supported above 1150 and finds resistance above 1220. If we were to witness a close on the daily chart at a price significantly above 1230, we would be forced to abandon ideas of such a H+S formation as the new high would negate it. This potential is within grasp considering that we’ve seen successive higher highs and higher lows since the latter half of April. Likewise a drop to a price level below 1150 would appear to be a sell signal to technicians and consequently would trigger further selling that would cause the H+S formation to be completed.

 

On a more micro scale, the week’s price action gave the bulls a ray of hope. Mon’s intraday low remained the low for the week and subsequent sessions saw either daily gains and/or successful tests of the low.

 

The tech-heavy Nasdaq continues to follow an alternative drumbeat. The rebound off the
April bottom was particularly strong but strength has been declining for the past month and there are signs that money is being pulled from this market to be redeployed in other bullish areas, namely the small and medium cap stocks. While price has yet to show significant deterioration, there are indications that a slide of some significance could take hold. Most notably with the ND is the overhead resistance near 2100, which has capped price several times and prevented a technical buy signal. When stocks refuse to go any higher (or further in either direction), the most likely future direction is downward.

 

 

New Buy Recommendations:

 

Nexen (NXY) – Nexen is the former Canadian Occidental, an independent oil and gas firm from a few years ago. The chart has been strong with the upward swing in oil prices however it experienced several months of chart retracement after a significant climb at the beginning of the year. Fri’s large move coupled with the big increase in trading volume and a break-out pattern on the chart leads us to believe that this stock is once again poised for sharp gains.

 

New Short Sales 

 

None.

 

Stock Positions to Sell/Exit:

 

None.

 

Portfolio Comments:

 

New stops have been added to the list while others have been modified. Those that have blanks, are being carried unstopped for now. Please see our complete list of stops in the table below.

 

List of Current Stock Recommendations:

Action Ratings. The following is the legend for designating immediate action
for our stock recommendations. The first is B, meaning the stock is timely
to buy but the case for doing so right here is not overwhelming. Either the
stock may have gotten ahead of itself and may be vulnerable to a retracement or
else the stock has been performing disappointingly but may simply be
regrouping. B+ and B++ indicate stocks for which there is a technical case
to buy now, with plusses adding weight according to how many there are, up
to a maximum of two. Stocks rated H are ones to hold, awaiting confirmation
to buy more or to sell. SELL, of course, means what it says. It seldom pays
to override this designation. In the case of stocks held short, the rating is S where positions should be retained. S+ and S++ indicate stocks for which there is a technical case to add to the positions with plusses adding weight similar to long positions. The maximum number of plus signs is 2.

Please take note that the following clause is being removed under the assumption that the aforementioned federal budget in Canada will be accepted into law. From the budget date forward, there are no longer restrictions on foreign stocks held in Canadian retirement accounts. Furthermore we will no longer mark stocks with # to indicate such.
[Stocks marked # are eligible as Canadian content in Canadian RSP funds. Otherwise there is a 30 percent restriction on foreign stocks held in these accounts.]

 

 

 

Date of Entry

Name

Symbol

Entry Price

Current Price

Stop

Action Rating

05/31/05

Aleris International

ARS

22.65

22.29

 

H

05/08/05

Canadian Nat Res.

CNQ ***

28.47

38.37

 

B+

05/23/05

Captiva Software

CPTV

14.03

14.17

13.00

H

04/25/05

Gilead Sciences

GILD

39.58

44.13

39.50

H

05/10/05

Humana

HUM

36.30

39.35

36.75

H

06/13/05

Novatel

NGPS

28.09

27.10

 

H

06/13/05

Orckit Comm.

ORCT

27.09

26.52

 

H

05/10/05

Pacificare Health

PHS

62.60

72.52

 

B

05/31/05

Sun Hydraulics

SNHY

35.88

37.04

 

B

03/08/04

Transcanada Corp

TRP

21.34

26.67

23.25

B

04/25/05

Verisign Inc

VRSN

29.24

30.47

29.50

SOLD

 

 

New stops in BOLD

* Stop on a closing basis

** Buy if above entry price

*** Split-adjusted price