Stockscom
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Publisher: Colin Alexander Editor: Ken Wilson (450-691-4617)
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Technically Speaking
This week spelled technical trouble for all equities as former support lines caved in midweek putting an unofficial end to the bull rally that began at the April lows. We are adamant that despite the late bounce to end the week and the beginning of a relief rally overnight this evening, equities have fallen out of favor and consequently the likely direction has turned down. One must remember that this precept relates to the broad general market and does not constitute a recommendation to sell our positions though we would be very cautious with current holdings and we are more likely to add shorts at this point than we are to add longs.
All indexes participated in the broad sell off of shares but the S&P 500 was the sole index of the majors to avoid violating its August lows and except for some intraday weakness on Thursday, it managed to largely keep inside the lower boundary of the upward moving channel. Nevertheless, the other large cap indexes, the DJ-30 and the Nasdaq Composite, failed and, in doing so, were responsible for leaving a distinctly bearish mark on the price charts.
On a smaller scale, by the end of the week, two of our recommendations had been exited but interestingly, the others were proving to be uncommonly strong amid the weak broader market’s signals.
Overnight markets are pricing in a healthy bounce when markets open Monday morning based on ideas that Hurricane Rita was far less damaging than anticipated. The petroleum infrastructure, which had been threatened by the storm, was largely spared the brunt as the storm center swung further north and east than originally expected. While this offers some relief to fears of tight crude supplies, it does not alleviate consumers concerns of balancing their personal budgets and once this is evident in the economic data to be released over the next few weeks, there is likely to be a return to the same weakness in stock prices.
The one large question mark is the extent
of federal government aid that will be plowed into the
New Buy Recommendations:
None.
New Short Sales
None.
Stock Positions to Sell/Exit:
We sold both Captiva Software and Commercial Metal, the former at its stop and the latter on a midweek recommendation.
Portfolio Comments:
New stops have been added to the list while others have been modified. Those that have blanks, are being carried unstopped for now. Please see our complete list of stops in the table below.
List of Current Stock Recommendations:
Action Ratings. The following is the legend for designating immediate action
for our stock recommendations. The first is B, meaning the stock is timely
to buy but the case for doing so right here is not overwhelming. Either the
stock may have gotten ahead of itself and may be vulnerable to a retracement or
else the stock has been performing disappointingly but may simply be
regrouping. B+ and B++ indicate stocks for which there is a technical case
to buy now, with plusses adding weight according to how many there are, up
to a maximum of two. Stocks rated H are ones to hold, awaiting confirmation
to buy more or to sell. SELL, of course, means what it says. It seldom pays
to override this designation. In the case of stocks held short, the rating is S
where positions should be retained. S+ and S++ indicate stocks for which there
is a technical case to add to the positions with plusses adding weight similar
to long positions. The maximum number of plus signs is 2.
N.B. There are no longer restrictions on foreign stocks held in Canadian retirement savings accounts.
|
Date of Entry |
Name |
Symbol |
Entry Price |
Current Price |
Stop |
Action Rating |
|
|
Am Sci & Eng Inc |
ASEI |
49.25 |
60.95 |
|
B
|
|
|
Autodesk Inc. |
ADSK |
40.22 |
42.27 |
|
B
|
|
|
Captiva Software |
CPTV |
14.03 |
18.00 |
18.00 |
SOLD |
|
|
Commercial Metal |
CMC |
32.70 |
31.70 |
|
SOLD |
|
|
Humana |
HUM |
36.30 |
47.80 |
40.00 |
B |
|
08/15/05 |
Nvidia |
NVDA |
30.05 |
32.71 |
|
B
|
|
05/10/05 |
Pacificare Health |
PHS |
62.60 |
79.01 |
73.00 |
B |
|
07/25/05 |
Precision Drilling |
PDS |
41.50 |
48.06 |
41.00 |
B |
|
09/12/05 |
Qualcomm |
QCOM |
42.48 |
44.76 |
|
B |
|
03/08/04 |
Transcanada Corp |
TRP |
21.34 |
30.76 |
25.10 |
B |
|
08/15/05 |
Websidestory |
WSSI |
16.74 |
18.92 |
|
B |
New stops in BOLD
* Stop on a closing basis
** Buy if above entry price
*** Split-adjusted price