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Dovish statement accompanies
rate hike of 0.25%
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Rebound gets a strong boost
Market Synopsis
In perhaps the most highly anticipated FOMC meeting in a very long time, the Ben Bernanke-led Federal Reserve chose to raise overnight interest rates by a quarter percent to 5.25% on Thursday. While this action was not totally unexpected, there were some surprises beginning with the associated communiqué, which was far less hawkish than previous missives. In fact, this time the Fed reworked the communiqué in its entirety after having used an identical one for many of the most recent meetings, resorting to a tweaking of the syntax just slightly. Refreshingly, the new communiqué traded in the tired obfuscation of Greenspan-speak with a straightforward, no-nonsense approach befitting a new Fed Chairman who professes the desire to engineer a more transparent Federal Reserve.
The widely held interpretation of the Fed announcement was that the Fed was hiking the interest rates now but that future rate hikes would depend entirely on the economic situation that evolves between now and the time of the decision. They explained further that while core inflation has been higher than they would like and the threat of higher inflation exists due to the high levels of resource utilization and high prices for energy and other commodities, the distinct softening of economic growth in the second quarter has put into question the need for future tightening. The next FOMC meeting is planned for early August.
Immediate reaction to the dovish statement
was seen both in the
But with the rapidly slowing housing market
in the
Technically Speaking
Thursday’s jump in equities marked the distinct beginning of a tradable rally in stocks along with further evidence that the small cap market should not be wholly discounted as has been the case among analysts in recent writings. The Russell small cap and the S&P Midcap indexes were among the leaders on Friday to end the week even while the three large cap indexes settled with closing reversals in an apparent bout of consolidation after the previous day’s gains.
The tech sector as represented by Nasdaq is the weakest of the large cap indexes with far less strength detected in the bounce while the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 have charts with positive OBV that could represent the initiation of a strong move. For now we recommend that investors refrain from pouring money into tech shares for one should invest only in sectors that perform strongly. Notwithstanding that caveat, we do not believe that new highs will occur in the other indexes either but rather that this should be considered only a tradable bounce which will be inevitably followed by another fall in prices as we head into the autumn.
New Buy Recommendations (in order of preference):
Seabridge Gold (SA) – One of our previous gold shares has returned to favor with the Fed announcement virtually assuring that dollar support will fall as the Fed ramps down its series of interest rate hikes. As gold often moves inversely to the dollar, the likelihood increases that the price of gold and of SA will benefit. SA closed just short of an all-time high on Friday gapping up as further confirmation of the Lindahl buy signal on the daily chart that was completed on Thursday. On the weekly chart, SA also drew support from the confirmation of the completion of another Lindahl buy signal from last week.
Titanium Metals Corp (
Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) – This stock represents a rare foray into the world of retail but its strength from both a fundamental side as well as technical is difficult to ignore. This retailer is growing exponentially both in same store sales as well as steadily opening new stores. The chart has been a steady riser that was caught in the same headwinds as most stocks in May and June but has quickly bounced back in the past two days to once more reach a new high.
New Short Sales
None.
Stock Positions to Sell/Exit:
None.
Portfolio Comments:
New stops have been added to the list while others have been modified. Those that have blanks, are being carried unstopped for now. Please see our complete list of stops in the table below.
List of Current Stock Recommendations:
Action Ratings. The following is the legend for designating immediate action
for our stock recommendations. The first is B, meaning the stock is timely
to buy but the case for doing so right here is not overwhelming. Either the
stock may have gotten ahead of itself and may be vulnerable to a retracement or
else the stock has been performing disappointingly but may simply be
regrouping. B+ and B++ indicate stocks for which there is a technical case
to buy now, with plusses adding weight according to how many there are, up
to a maximum of two. Stocks rated H are ones to hold, awaiting confirmation
to buy more or to sell. SELL, of course, means what it says. It seldom pays
to override this designation. In the case of stocks held short, the rating is S
where positions should be retained. S+ and S++ indicate stocks for which there
is a technical case to add to the positions with plusses adding weight similar
to long positions. The maximum number of plus signs is 2.
N.B. There are no longer restrictions on foreign stocks held in Canadian retirement savings accounts.
|
Date of Entry |
Name |
Symbol |
Entry Price |
Current Price |
Stop |
Action Rating |
|
|
First |
FMD |
48.85 |
56.94 |
50.00 |
B
|
New stops in BOLD
* Stop on a closing basis
** Buy if above entry price
*** Split-adjusted price