Stockscom Report for Sunday Aug 6 2006

Publisher: Colin Alexander        Editor: Ken Wilson (450-691-4617)

Subscriptions and Administration: Pierre Fichaud (toll-free: 866-487-9711)

 

·        July jobs report: +113K

 

 

 

Technically Speaking

 

The payroll figures of 113K new jobs for July gave investors reason to believe that the Fed may choose to pause when making their decision on interest rates Tue afternoon. Nevertheless, the confusing mixture of economic data has investors on their toes as evidenced by the finish of indexes on Fri. All indexes closed the week in the approximate middle of their respective price bars (daily charts) after having hit significant highs earlier in the session.

 

By the end of the week, the DJ and SP managed to top their Jun highs on an intraday basis and despite closing with marginal losses, the key element was their ability to hold much of the weekly gain. The ND market, both the Composite and the ND-100, continue to lag the broader market remaining well below the Jul highs as well as their Jun highs.

 

Therefore we are left with two questions:

  1. Will the Fed raise interest rates on Tue or will they choose to pause knowing that the economy appears to be slowing? This week inflation figures suggested that the Fed would be inclined to raise rates but the jobs report for Jul indicate strongly that growth in jobs is substantially slower than earlier in the year. Second quarter job growth has measured only 112K jobs on average each month while the first quarter growth was closer to 176K jobs.

 

  1. Has the low for stocks been put in for the year?

 

If the Fed chooses to pause on Tue signaling the coming end of this cycle of interest rate increases, the chances improve that investors will view this as a positive leading to a sharper rally in stocks.

 

New Buy Recommendations (in order of preference):

 

None.

 

New Short Sales  

 

None.

 

Stock Positions to Sell/Exit:

 

None.

 

Portfolio Comments:

 

New stops have been added to the list while others have been modified. Those that have blanks, are being carried unstopped for now. Please see our complete list of stops in the table below.

 

List of Current Stock Recommendations:

Action Ratings. The following is the legend for designating immediate action
for our stock recommendations. The first is B, meaning the stock is timely
to buy but the case for doing so right here is not overwhelming. Either the
stock may have gotten ahead of itself and may be vulnerable to a retracement or
else the stock has been performing disappointingly but may simply be
regrouping. B+ and B++ indicate stocks for which there is a technical case
to buy now, with plusses adding weight according to how many there are, up
to a maximum of two. Stocks rated H are ones to hold, awaiting confirmation
to buy more or to sell. SELL, of course, means what it says. It seldom pays
to override this designation. In the case of stocks held short, the rating is S where positions should be retained. S+ and S++ indicate stocks for which there is a technical case to add to the positions with plusses adding weight similar to long positions. The maximum number of plus signs is 2.

N.B. There are no longer restrictions on foreign stocks held in Canadian retirement savings accounts.

 

 

Date of Entry

Name

Symbol

Entry Price

Current Price

Stop

Action Rating

07/03/06

Seabridge Gold

SA

12.11

13.76

11.00

B

 

Short Sales:

 

Date of Entry

Name

Symbol

Entry Price

Current Price

Stop

Action Rating

07/10/06

Ebay

EBAY

26.92

24.20

26.00

S

07/10/06

Getty Images Inc

GYI

57.60

46.66

50.00

S

07/24/06

Red Hat Inc

RHAT

23.37

22.78

25.50

S

 

New stops in BOLD

* Stop on a closing basis

** Buy if above entry price

*** Split-adjusted price