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Publisher: Colin Alexander Editor: Ken Wilson (450-691-4617)
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Santa Claus rally fizzles
quickly
Market Synopsis
Any ideas that a Santa Claus rally was just around the corner were quickly dispensed with this past week as all major indexes succumbed to the pressure of sellers. The major averages slid through normally strong support areas and have put into doubt, the probability of further upward moves in the near term.
Technically Speaking
There is a noticeable breakdown in the stock indexes which has culminated in a Lindahl sell signal on the weekly chart of the ND-100 and a near-breakdown of the rise in the S&P 500 since the summer.
Over the past five weeks since the ND-100 topped out on weaker than normal volume, the subsequent losses were largely balanced by the moves higher until this week when the index seemingly threw in the towel in a sharp closing reversal albeit on weak holiday-style volume settling for the week at a support line corresponding to the April highs. Beyond this level, the next support would be found near the round figure of 1700 and further support would be located at the 200-day moving average near 1650 currently.
As for the S&P, it has stayed consistently in an upward moving channel since the July low was reached. Although weakness in November prompted a move toward the lower boundary, it remained steadfast until this week when once more, there was a breakdown setting up a probable test of the upward sloping channel. Similar to the action on the Nasdaq, the volumes of the past few days have been weak by normal trading standards and could potentially cause price movements that might not otherwise occur however a breakdown of this channel would be sufficient to raise large caution flags with us as well as other technicians.
New Buy Recommendations (in order of preference):
Qiao Xing Universal Telephone (
Cheniere Energy Inc. (
New Short Sales
None.
Stock Positions to Sell/Exit:
We sold
Portfolio Comments:
New stops have been added to the list while others have been modified. Those that have blanks are being carried unstopped for now. Please see our complete list of stops in the table below.
List of Current Stock Recommendations:
Action Ratings. The following is the legend for designating immediate action
for our stock recommendations. The first is B, meaning the stock is timely
to buy but the case for doing so right here is not overwhelming. Either the
stock may have gotten ahead of itself and may be vulnerable to a retracement or
else the stock has been performing disappointingly but may simply be
regrouping. B+ and B++ indicate stocks for which there is a technical case
to buy now, with plusses adding weight according to how many there are, up
to a maximum of two. Stocks rated H are ones to hold, awaiting confirmation
to buy more or to sell. SELL, of course, means what it says. It seldom pays
to override this designation. In the case of stocks held short, the rating is S
where positions should be retained. S+ and S++ indicate stocks for which there
is a technical case to add to the positions with plusses adding weight similar
to long positions. The maximum number of plus signs is 2.
N.B. There are no longer restrictions on foreign stocks held in Canadian retirement savings accounts.
|
Date of Entry |
Name |
Symbol |
Entry Price |
Current Price |
Stop |
Action Rating |
|
|
Actions Semi |
ACTS |
9.28 |
8.55 |
8.20 |
H
|
|
|
Allis-Chalmers |
ALY |
17.80 |
22.78 |
19.50 |
B
|
|
|
Coca-Cola Co. |
KO |
46.75 |
48.38 |
47.00 |
B
|
|
|
Cognos Inc |
|
35.20 |
40.97 |
38.00 |
B
|
|
|
Credence Systems |
|
5.02 |
5.12 |
4.50 |
B
|
|
|
Global Payments |
|
43.80 |
46.45 |
41.50 |
B
|
|
|
Goodyear Tire |
GT |
18.00 |
19.72 |
17.00 |
B
|
|
|
I-Flow Corp |
|
15.02 |
14.74 |
13.50 |
H
|
|
|
Investment Tech. |
|
43.87 |
41.80 |
41.80 |
SOLD |
|
12/11/06 |
Isis Pharma. |
ISIS |
12.53 |
11.57 |
10.50 |
H
|
|
10/30/06 |
Millennium Pharm |
MLNM |
11.58 |
11.17 |
10.50 |
H
|
|
10/02/06 |
NII Holdings |
NIHD |
62.27 |
65.00 |
65.00 |
SOLD |
|
11/13/06 |
NYSE Group |
NYX |
96.50 |
97.01 |
90.00 |
B
|
|
11/06/06 |
Syntax-Brillian |
BRLC |
7.98 |
8.00 |
8.00 |
SOLD |
|
11/06/06 |
Watts Industries |
WTS |
41.25 |
40.39 |
37.75 |
H
|
New stops in BOLD
* Stop on a closing basis
** Buy if above entry price
*** Split-adjusted
price