Stockscom Report for Sunday July 1 2007
Publisher: Colin Alexander
Editor: Ken Wilson (450-691-4617)
Subscriptions and Administration: Pierre Fichaud (toll-free: 866-487-9711)
- ·
Stocks slide and we turn cautious weakness
continues
Technically Speaking
Little changed over this past week with the broader large cap markets the Dow
Jones and the S&P 500 managing only one solitary day where index prices
finished higher. The Nasdaq twins surpassed that mark by one allowing for two
days of higher prices. The midweek rise was significant though since it was
substantial in value if not in volume. Overall, markets appeared to be digesting
the heavy losses from the previous Friday and the general increase in downside
risk.
Some of the trading activity over the course of this last week could be
attributed to mutual fund window-dressing as both the month ended as well as the
second quarter.
Interestingly, not even the Federal Reserve’s decision to stand pat on interest
rates had any meaningful effect on the markets. The decision to leave the
overnight rate unchanged at 5.25% was met by a collective yawn as little changed
in the Fed’s policy announcement summarizing their outlook on the inflation
risk. However, we should point out that reactions to Fed decisions can often
occur a couple of days after the market has had time to digest the news.
The key factor for now is that these indexes were, with one exception, able to
remain above their June lows. The exception being the S&P 500, which touched
down very briefly Wednesday a few points lower than the previous low before
rebounding strongly. In particular, the Nasdaq twins were comparatively stronger
all week as they remained well above their respective June lows and were not
seen to be threatening this important level.
New Buy Recommendations (in order of preference):
Robbins & Myers Inc. (RBN) This firm’s strong results and improved guidance
announced Thursday afternoon propelled its stock on Friday to a new all-time
high. On the daily chart, the impressive gap combined with the breakout from
congestion between $35 and $47 signals that a new leg higher has begun in the
near term. We see this move as well over longer terms such as the weekly chart
and the monthly chart depicts a very broad inverted head and shoulders pattern
over many years that is now being concluded.
SJW Corp. (SJW) SJW reached a low for the 2007 year a week ago Friday but
bounced back strongly to settle just short of reversing the past two months’
stock performance on higher than normal volume. This low was supported well when
viewed on the weekly chart as the highs from the second half of 2005 and the
first quarter of 2006 approached this level. On the monthly chart, we see that
the low also corresponded with the 25-week moving average and again the
unusually high volume accentuates the bounce in this latest month.
New Short Sales
None.
Stock Positions to Sell/Exit:
We were exited from several positions on our stops this past week, an occurrence
that we don’t find surprising given the overall weakness and volatility in the
market at this time. Moreover, we’ve added a couple of sell recommendations one
of which relates to the steel industry while the other relates to the
financials; sectors that are currently under substantial market pressure.
The re-pegging of stop-loss prices last week has left many other stocks in tight
positions that could result in additional exits over the coming days and weeks.
Portfolio Comments:
New stops have been added to the list while others have been modified. Those
that have blanks are being carried unstopped for now. Please see our complete
list of stops in the table below.
List of Current Stock Recommendations:
Action Ratings. The following is the legend for designating immediate action
for our stock recommendations. The first is B, meaning the stock is timely
to buy but the case for doing so right here is not overwhelming. Either the
stock may have gotten ahead of itself and may be vulnerable to a retracement or
else the stock has been performing disappointingly but may simply be
regrouping. B+ and B++ indicate stocks for which there is a technical case
to buy now, with plusses adding weight according to how many there are, up
to a maximum of two. Stocks rated H are ones to hold, awaiting confirmation
to buy more or to sell. SELL, of course, means what it says. It seldom pays
to override this designation. In the case of stocks held short, the rating is S
where positions should be retained. S+ and S++ indicate stocks for which there
is a technical case to add to the positions with plusses adding weight similar
to long positions. The maximum number of plus signs is 2.
N.B. There are no longer restrictions on foreign stocks held in Canadian
retirement savings accounts.
| Date of Entry
|
Name |
Symbol |
Entry Price |
Current Price |
Stop |
Action Rating |
| 04/30/07
|
Allied Waste Ind. |
AW |
13.37 |
13.46 |
13.00 |
B |
| 06/11/07
|
Amer Sci & Eng |
ASEI |
56.25 |
56.85 |
50.00 |
B |
| 04/09/07
|
Cameco Corp. |
CCJ |
46.22 |
50.00 |
50.00 |
SOLD |
| 12/26/06
|
Cheniere Energy |
LNG |
29.15 |
38.79 |
37.00 |
B |
| 06/18/07
|
Cleveland-Cliffs |
CLF |
81.01 |
74.96 |
75.00 |
SOLD |
| 06/25/07
|
Columbus McK. |
CMCO |
31.15 |
32.20 |
28.00 |
B |
| 05/29/07
|
Dycom Industries |
DY |
29.32 |
29.98 |
28.00 |
B |
| 06/11/07
|
Euroseas |
ESEA |
14.92 |
14.26 |
13.35 |
H |
| 03/26/07
|
Fronteer Dev’t Grp |
FRG |
12.40 |
11.90 |
11.00 |
H |
| 05/21/07
|
Gerdau Ameristeel |
GNA |
15.25 |
14.63 |
14.00 |
SELL |
| 11/13/06
|
Goodyear Tire |
GT |
18.00 |
34.76 |
31.00 |
B |
| 03/12/07
|
Grant Prideco |
GRP |
46.75 |
53.83 |
52.50 |
B |
| 05/07/07
|
Intercont Exch Inc. |
ICE |
138.48 |
147.85 |
140.00 |
SELL |
| 06/18/07
|
Opsware Inc. |
OPSW |
10.06 |
9.00 |
9.00 |
SOLD |
| 04/30/07
|
Portfolio Rec. Ass. |
PRAA |
56.17 |
60.02 |
53.80 |
B |
| 04/23/07
|
Synalloy Corp. |
SYNL |
36.39 |
40.00 |
40.00 |
SOLD |
| 03/19/07
|
Tsakos Energy Nav |
TNP |
49.50 |
69.91 |
62.00 |
B |
| 03/26/07
|
Vasco Data Sec’y |
VDSI |
17.92 |
22.76 |
20.00 |
B |
New stops in BOLD
* Stop on a closing basis
** Buy if above entry price
*** Split-adjusted price