Stockscom - August 5th, 1999 22:59
Cover short stock index futures
at the market on the open if you used them as suggested to hedge against
the risk of a more significant market fall. If you used the Dow Jones
futures, there will be a small loss as a result of the unexpected bid
for Union Carbide. If you used any other instrument, there will be a small
but worthwhile profit.
Today's immense reversal is
powerful enough to indicate that we probably
have completed a selling climax, and that the apparent breakdown in the
Russell was a bear trap. Using the S&P as a proxy, price held at the
important June 4 low as well as the perhaps even more important 40 week
moving average, equivalent to the widely watched 200 day. The daily chart
stochastics got about as low as they ever do, which of course sometimes
indicates simply the power of the market, as we have often seen on the
upside. Today's reversal was very impressive. The rule is the bigger the
reversal the more likely to continue, and paradoxically the less one should
regret not have bought near the low. You can buy after a feeble reversal
only to find that there is no follow-through. We could see buying lightly
here. On our recommended list, the following stocks made new highs today
and are particularly recommended to enter here: Apache (APA) and Idec
(IDPH). Apache is an oil stock and you can buy pretty much any. Among
our recommended stocks in the oil patch, BP Amoco and the oil-service
company Santa Fe (SDC) look particularly good to buy right here. Other
recommended stocks that are timely to buy now are Corning (GLW), Hewlett
Packard (HWP), LSI Logic (LSI), PMC Sierra (PMCS). Although several of
our recommendations sold off quite hard, like Lucent, there are none that
we want to sell because of better looking opportunities or because their
technical case has weakened excessively.
We are adding three stocks
that are particularly timely to buy now:
Amgen (AMGN) $79.19
We previously owned this stock and want to buy it back. It is one of the
technically strongest health care stocks, an area in which we want more
representation.
Chiron Corp (CHIR) $26.56
This is another health care stock with a particularly good story related
recently in Barron's.
Talisman (TLM) $31.50
Yet another oil stock, with an immensely powerful chart like Apache, fueled
by a big oil discovery and a strong balance sheet.
Stocks marked # are eligible
for Canadian RSP funds. Otherwise there is a 20pc restriction on foreign
stocks held in these accounts.
Current Recommendations:
(Entry Date, Entry Price, Last Close, Code, Name)
* 99/05/12 39.75 44.56 ADI
Analog Devices
* 99/04/06 49.00 85.00 AMCC Applied Micro Circuits
99/06/14 30.63 30.63 AOG Alberta Energy Corp #
99/06/14 38.28 44.48 APA Apache
99/04/06 92.13 105.94 ASCND Ascend Communications
(acquired by Lucent 1.65 shares to 1)
99/06/14 109.78 117.50 BPA BP Amoco Plc
* 99/05/12 94.38 114.25 BRCM Broadcom
* 99/05/14 40.69 42.81 CLS Celestica #
99/05/12 117.50 61.50 CSCO Cisco (split on 99/06/21 2:1)
99/06/14 14.59 18.09 CXY Canadian Occidental Petroleum #
* 99/05/12 46.91 41.41 DEO Diageo Plc
99/05/12 54.61 58.61 EDS Electronic Data System
99/04/06 132.13 62.31 EMC EMC (split on 99/05/28 2:1)
99/06/14 31.13 31.13 ERICY Erickson
99/04/06 51.50 45.44 FLEX Flextronics
99/06/14 60.14 70.02 GLW Corning
99/05/14 84.52 113.55 HWP Hewlett-Packard
99/05/12 220.77 122.83 IBM IBM (split on 99/05/26)
99/05/14 58.13 101.50 IDPH Idec Pharma
99/04/06 60.83 60.80 LLTC Linear Tech Corp
** 99/04/06 32.75 51.69 LSI LSI Logic
99/05/12 25.06 24.00 NOVL Novell
* 99/04/06 163.19 81.44 NOK Nokia (split on 99/04/09 2:1)
99/04/06 65.66 81.92 NT Nortel Networks #
99/06/14 93.56 96.81 PHG Phillips Electronics
* 99/05/12 106.06 80.06 PMC PMC Sierra (split on 99/05/14 2:1)
* 99/05/12 49.88 62.44 QLTI QTLI Phototherapeutics #
99/06/14 21.39 21.98 SDC Santa Fe International
99/06/14 35.97 36.47 SFA Scientific Atlanta
* 99/04/06 53.75 65.63 SLR Solectron
99/04/06 130.94 71.50 SUNW Sun Microsystems (split on 99/04/08 2:1)
* 99/04/06 109.48 139.53 TXN Texas Instruments
** 99/05/12 87.19 96.70 TYC Tyco
In addition we recommend the
following Closed End Funds, based on the assumption that Third World economic
downturns are not going to last forever and that their stocks are now
showing superb technical strength
99/05/12 9.89 10.58 CHN China
Fund
99/04/06 6.63 9.25 FAK Fidelity Adv Korea
99/04/06 8.88 10.94 IFN India Fund
99/04/06 8.05 10.23 JOF Japan OTC Equity Fund
99/04/06 11.00 14.13 KF Korea Fund
Stockscom
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